With a population of less than 700,000 and a total area of only 706 sq km, the kingdom of Bahrain in the Arabian Gulf has a hard enough time mustering the resources it needs to expand its infrastructure. But over the past few months, its task has been made even harder by an unusual obstacle that has risen in its path: a shortage of sand in the desert island nation.

With property prices rising and a number of ambitious developments already in the works, the shortage of sand – a key ingredient of concrete – is hitting Bahrain hard, driving up construction costs threefold, by some reports. And with renewed investor interest in the region in the wake of the Iraq war and a return of liquidity to the Gulf, the timing could not be worse for a country intent on capitalizing on its reputation for financial services and its recent steps toward political reform.

To anyone who has visited Bahrain, the notion of a sand shortage may seem slightly ridiculous. One encyclopedia describes the 33 islands that make up Bahrain’s archipelago as “level expanses of sand and rock”.

Drive no more than a few minutes beyond the suburbs of Manama, the capital city, and you are suddenly traveling through a pale topography of dust clouds and two-lane highways strewn with grit. The flat white landscape blends seamlessly into the flat white sky, and the major tourist attraction is the Tree of Life, a lone acacia tree, a century old or more, standing valiantly on a small rise surrounded by nothing but obdurate white desert. A few camels can be seen grazing in the distance, but what they might find of sustenance here is a mystery.

Camels, though, are not known for their discernment. Bahrain is not lacking in the uncountable grains of disintegrated rock that fill deserts all over the world. The problem is its quality. For more than 20 years, Bahrain has been short of the particular kind of sand that is needed to make construction-grade concrete, and has had to import its supply – some 6,000 to 8,000 tonnes a day – from Saudi Arabia.

Camels may be satisfied with Bahraini sand, but Bahrain’s contractors are not.

Bahrain’s current “sand crisis”, as Manama’s local newspaper terms it, first began as early as July of 2003, when Saudi Arabia cut off its sand supply without warning or explanation. Even the Bahraini government was not given a reason for the suspension of deliveries, which came by the truckload across the 25km King Fahd causeway that links Bahrain to the Saudi mainland.

Businessmen and government officials in Manama have put forth various explanations to fill the Saudis’ silence. Concern for the environment could be one reason deliveries were stopped, though if this were the case it is unlikely that the Saudis, who pay particular attention to their image abroad, would not have advertised it.

Saudi Arabia’s sand and aggregate export sector operates largely informally, and another explanation that has been floated is that deliveries have been halted while Riyadh puts firmer regulations in place. Saudi Arabia has reportedly sought to expand its own cement-production industry in recent months, a move that may have contributed to the Arabian kingdom’s unwillingness to part with what has become a valuable resource. There is also speculation that Riyadh is hoarding its concrete-production capacity to take advantage of reconstruction contracts that may be coming on to the market in Iraq.

Whatever the reason, the cut-off of supply has affected Bahrain’s property market, which was already moving up, contributing to higher construction costs and higher property estate prices. According to Neil D’Silva, managing director of Norwich Property Consultants in Manama, construction prices now range from $25 to $50 a square foot, including labor costs. Local house prices have doubled in some towns, with prices averaging around $40 a square foot but topping $100 a square foot in prime locations. The property market has soared in the last year, outpacing the stock market, which rose almost 30 per cent in 2003.

Not all of the rise is due to a shortage of sand. Looser residence and ownership restrictions have made property in Bahrain more attractive, especially for expats working just across the causeway in Saudi Arabia who prefer to sleep and socialize in the calmer atmosphere of Bahrain.

Many of Bahrain’s current projects are luxury-living developments that carry a high price tag. At the new Al Marsa Floating City and Residential Marina, prices have risen 20 per cent since sales started in April 2003. The 3m sq m development occupies the man-made Amwaj Islands off Muharraq Island, where Bahrain’s international airport and shipping port are located.

Other projects in the Amwaj Islands include 211 luxury apartments in the seven Mina Towers buildings, where one-bedroom flats go for $70,000 and up, and the 120 two-storey townhouses of the nearby Mirage Beachfront development, which sell for $200,000 and up.

Another luxury project currently under construction is the $1.2 billion Durrat Al-Bahrain residential resort at the south-east end of Bahrain, where seven newly created islands will house up to 16,000 residents.

A newly built 18-hole golf course will also offer its own residential compound, and a marina will host more than 350 yachts. Construction is scheduled for completion in 2006.

Construction on these and other projects has been slowed by the sand shortage, but has not ground completely to a halt. A shortage of sand in the desert, of course, is like a shortage of water in the sea. But for Bahrain, the two problems are not unconnected. The country has been able to replace some of its Arabian peninsular sand supply with sand dredged from the sea floor. But its high chlorine and salt content makes sea sand harder to work with. The government’s recent efforts to expand roadworks in Manama have been able to take advantage of dredged sand, but these supplies are very expensive to obtain and process, especially since it takes three cubic meters of fresh water – itself in short supply on the 40km-long island – to cure one cubic meter of dredged sand.

The government is exploring alternative sources of sand, including importing it from Iran, but a solution has yet to be found. “We are talking with our brothers in Saudi Arabia, and maybe we can sort this problem as soon as possible,” Bahrain’s minister of commerce, Ali Bin Saleh Al-Saleh, said in a recent interview. Until then, he laughed, “We don’t have sand, though we have deserts all around us.”

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AS A MEMBER of Oman’s Royal Family, Her Excellency Sayyida Zawan al-Said might be expected firmly to support her country’s government, or at least to keep a low profile where matters of domestic politics and international relations are concerned. This is the Gulf, after all, where women are meant to be seen and not heard.

But although the Sayyida presents the splendorous picture one expects from a Gulf royal – when she strides into the lobby of the Grand Hyatt Muscat to meet me, it’s in a Dolce & Gabbana denim waistcoat and jeans that hug her curvy figure, with a Chanel handbag swinging from her arm – her voice, with its distant hint of a lisp, is a different matter. When Zawan speaks, she hardly blends into the background – though this is due mostly to the fact that she can be heard every day on Oman’s only English-language radio station, hosting a breakfast show on which she regularly takes the Government to task and fields listeners’ calls on everything from male injectable contraceptives to women’s rights, Madonna’s latest change of style or whatever else might also cross her mind.

Far from being a quiet face in the royal crowd, Zawan has taken on a calling few in the Arab world – whether women or men – would dare to try: after a dozen years of work she has transformed herself into an American-style “shock jock”, with two popular and eyebrow-raising English-language radio shows each day that have just completed their first year on the air. When I meet her she is on her way to London for a well-deserved break, and to seek out foreign broadcasting talent who might be able to help her expand her offerings beyond Early On, the breakfast show she hosts from 7am to 9am five mornings a week, and Later On, the afternoon drivetime show she produces.

And far from earning the wrath of Omani society, her candour has been widely appreciated by listeners who call in to her shows or even drop by to be part of her studio audience ‹ once they get over their shock.

Though her subject matter might seem unremarkable to a Western audience, the relatively autocratic Gulf does not yet have many presenters who question things – such as whether it’s fair to have the police hiding speed cameras behind the bushes – or who ridicule Sultan Qaboos bin Said al-Said’s “meet-the-people” tour (”not a single woman among these so-called people”).

The 39-year-old BBC-trained broadcaster describes her show as “a bit of a wake-up call for a lot of people”. A typical comment from a caller: “I’m so glad someone is saying that at long last” ‹ though a segment on the search for female Viagra inspired one listener to call in with the news that “we’re so sick of faking it”, a comment that itself must have been something of a wake-up call for many listeners.

Though there is no ratings service in Oman to track Early On’s popularity, it is “the most listened-to programme”, according to Zawan, and has even attracted media attention in neighbouring states such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

At the same time, Zawan is aware that much of its success is due to a lack of choice: “It’s the only breakfast show on the only radio station for the British expatriate and English-speaking Omani communities,” she says.

But compared to what came before it, Early On is “extremely, extremely popular”, Zawan adds. “It was just a nothing breakfast show before. You had a string of songs and there was no one saying anything and it had no name and no specific presenter. I just waited and thought, gosh, what a goldmine this is.”

When she approached Oman’s Minister of Information about taking over the show, he was sceptical at first, but finally offered her the slot – with no support and no pay. After the first three weeks of funding, producing, co-ordinating and presenting the show herself, as well as raising three children, Zawan was ready to quit. But with some encouragement from her husband, a retired Omani brigadier – and in light of the fact that the show was a runaway hit within days of going on the air – she persevered, eventually striking a deal with the Ministry of Information under which she would continue to provide free programming to the station in return for the freedom to seek her own commercial backing.

Six months later she signed up HSBC to sponsor Early On, and soon after that landed Bank Muscat as a sponsor for Later On. Except for some bells and whistles that she says give her shows a more professional feel (things like the programmes’ jingles, voiceovers and other effects, which she pays for herself), the sponsorships cover most of her costs, and the salaries of ten people who work for her.

While it probably hasn’t been hard to outdo Radio Oman’s traditional fare, Zawan has also been lucky in that she hit the airwaves at a time when the country is hungry to be engaged by a liberal dialogue on politics and current events.

October 2003 saw all Omanis get the vote for the first time. But turnout to elect the Majlis al-Shura, or consultative council, the country’s parliament, was hardly stellar, coming in at less than 25 per cent of the 800,000 Omanis eligible to vote. Political analysts in Oman and the United States say the low numbers are due to the fact that most Omanis still do not feel they have a political voice, despite Sultan Qaboos’s token steps toward democratisation. The Majlis – like most in the Arab world – is not empowered to make any laws but only to comment on those proposed by the Sultan’s Cabinet. And political campaigns are forbidden to use the mass media, making it difficult for the more than 500 candidates who were standing to reach more people than they could shake hands with.

Zawan does what she can to move the political dialogue along with comments on things like the Sultan’s meet-the-people tour, but even she is constrained. “At the end of the day, I would have liked to know who these candidates were,” she says. “But how could you move towards a more publicised, political comment when you actually have a huge big notice stuck on the board saying ‘No one is allowed to talk to any of the candidates standing for election on any of the programmes’? How do you react? That just says it all, really.”

Nevertheless, for the Arab world she remains an unusually freewheeling presenter. Some have chalked this up to her royal heritage: her father was an Omani government minister and brother of Sultan Qaboos’s father, making the Sultan her first cousin.

Zawan, of course, disagrees with the notion that her royal blood has given her more latitude, and holds that anyone could say what she says on Omani radio. When I ask why she feels the freedom to speak out when others don’t, she gives an answer that is odd to hear, coming from royalty: “I feel I have nothing to lose.”

Though her lineage probably helped her gain access to the Minister of Information to propose her show, she did not simply walk into a career in radio. After taking advantage of London University’s external degree programme to study English literature at Oxford, Zawan cast about for direction before trying Radio Oman in 1991. Having found her passion, she went on to take a graduate degree in broadcast journalism and has pressed ahead with her ambitions ever since.

Now, with five hours of independent commercial programming on Radio Oman, Zawan has created what she calls “a radio station within a radio station”, and hopes to take it even further. While in London she will be looking for a presenter with a lively enough personality to take over her duties with Early On (her search in Oman proved fruitless), which would allow her to start a third programme in the lunchtime slot. At that point, she says: “The next step is to open my own radio station.”

Her dreams include even more than that. She is currently drafting a proposal for an English-language television entertainment show (”a really massive big programme”) to offer to an Arabic station, and hints that she would like one day to be in the business of commissioning such fare, rather than producing it. So how long will it be before we’re tuning into Zawan-TV? “I’m trying actually to be less of a control freak, so I don’t get hurt,” she laughs. She is committed to Oman and to helping to develop the media there, but admits to the possibility that her ambitions might one day take her abroad again: “At the end of the day, does it really matter where you base yourself if you are able to have your own satellite TV station?”

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Reports that 10,000 people took to the streets of Bahrain to celebrate Jerusalem Day, the last Friday in Ramadan, on 21 November, may have understated the size of the event. Local correspondents report as many as 45,000 attended, a higher-than-normal turnout for the demonstration, which featured the usual anti-American and anti-Israel sloganeering and the burning of a few American flags.

There was no violence or arrests, but a simmering unrest in the normally pro-Western kingdom could have an impact on business interests there, just as the country is trying to make its mark on the international financial scene.

With the recent security warning from the UK embassy in Manama, issued just hours before the 8 November bombings in Riyadh (GSN 722/1), questions arise as to just how contagious the violence in Iraq and Saudi Arabia may be.

Events in Turkey suggest a region-wide phenomenon. But the British warning in Bahrain was later revealed to be based not on any specific information, but simply a generally “high threat from terrorism” in the region, particularly in places where Westerners might gather, the embassy said.

Whether or not terrorism is about to creep across the King Fahd Causeway linking Bahrain with Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, there have been signs of heightened unrest in the island kingdom, which has now reached a level where business interests are beginning to take notice. Some businessmen say that even a mild escalation could have an impact on prospects even as the global economy sputters ahead.

No song and dance
Several recent events point to increased activism on the part of anti-Western groups in Bahrain, though not necessarily to a rise in anti-Western sentiment. In October, Islamist MPs moved in Parliament to cancel two concerts by Lebanese singer Nancy Ajram, charging her show was indecent and provocative. Their motion was soundly defeated, but more than a 100 masked protestors disrupted Ajram’s concerts on 22-23 October, throwing stones, setting rubbish on fire and smashing car windows. There were several arrests over the two nights, but the concerts managed to go on as planned.

A smaller but perhaps more telling disruption came at the end of October, when a child’s Halloween party at an expat compound in a Manama suburb was shut down by an angry mob of approximately 120 Bahrainis, according to the Bahrain-based manager for a major American company doing business throughout the Gulf. The mob brandished mobile phones and threatened to summon many more supporters if the music and partying were not stopped. As the manager put it, “people want to live in a safe place.”

So far, Bahrain has been one of the safest, with a per capita income right in the middle of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states (higher than Oman and Saudi Arabia), and more progressive democratic reforms in place than most if not all its fellow GCC members.

But many more disturbances of the same nature could change the feeling of security there. Western and Bahraini businessmen both tell GSN they view the situation with more wariness of late, though not yet with alarm. Whether the answer is heightened security, economic development, political reform, or progress in Palestine, Saudi Arabia or Iraq is far from clear. But if an answer is not found and things get much worse in Bahrain, there could be real consequences for business there just as the country is hoping its landmark Bahrain Financial Harbour (BFH) project will raise its international profile with investors.

Trouble at the mall
The tens of thousands of demonstrators that turned out for Palestine Day in Manama gathered outside the new Seef Mall, itself a very American icon, where shoppers have their pick of US-brand fast food and 16 theatres showing American and European films. On the street, some marchers carried pictures of the Statue of Liberty standing atop a pile of skulls.

Though life in Manama went on as normal in the days following the UK security warning and the latest Riyadh bombings, at least one other embassy, Germany’s, closed to foreigners for a reassessment of the country’s security situation, officials said. The US embassy in Manama issued no security warnings in the days before or after the bombings.

Though no new domestic security measures have yet surfaced, Bahrain will be eager to dispel any notion that it is a place not conducive to Western business interests. An escalation of anti-Western unrest could endanger not only new business initiatives but also the ones already in place, which have helped the kingdom establish the great deal of security it currently enjoys.

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Sultan Qaboos Bin Saeed inaugurated the third session of Oman’s joint majlis on 21 October with talk of the country’s “enterprise in the field of democratic action”, but although recent steps toward political reform in the Sultanate have looked good on paper, they have yet to satisfy a populace that would like more of a voice in the country’s affairs.

Oman has long been known as a peaceable garden spot in a region given to big ambitions and occasional strife, but real reforms both political and economic will be needed before long if the sultanate is to avoid the kind of social and economic strains that have beset other Gulf monarchies.

The 4 October elections for the Majlis Al-Shura (consultative council) – the first conducted with universal suffrage for Omanis 21 and over – saw less than impressive voter turnout. Of the approximately 800,000 Omanis eligible to vote, some 262,000 registered, and less than 200,000 actually voted.

Sultan Qaboos was clearly hoping for more. Private sector employees were given a day’s holiday if they could demonstrate they had voted, and the government mounted a huge get-out-and-vote campaign prior to the election (GSN 719/4) – though this was perhaps too little, too late.

Local critics also questioned the ban on campaigning in the media, which made it difficult for the 500-plus candidates to reach more people than they could shake hands with. Ultimately, though, the problem was lack of voter engagement, especially in the more liberal and educated precincts in and around Muscat. Though Omanis were pleased to get the vote – previous electorates have consisted of a small number of voters hand-picked by regional administrators – widespread scepticism about the council’s effectiveness kept many away from the polls.

Small steps forward
The result is a council that should prove less pro-active than its predecessor, according to local political correspondents and Western diplomatic sources in Oman, a development that calls into question the efficacy of Sultan Qaboos’s reforms.

Turnout was reportedly higher in the interior, where voters tend to support whoever the local leaders – themselves appointed by the government in Muscat – tell them to. Incumbents were forced out of many seats by term limits, and more than half the 83-member council consists of new faces. The two female incumbents held their seats (GSN 720/4), though none of the 13 other women standing won their races.

Sultan Qaboos is seemingly more progressive than his citizens in this regard. He has said he would like more female Majlis members, has installed a number of women in senior government posts and earlier in 2003 appointed Sheikha Aisha Bint Khalfan Bin Jameel Al-Sayabiyah minister of the National Authority for Industrial Craftsmanship, the first female minister in any of the six Gulf Co-operation Council states.

Universal suffrage increases the Majlis’s mandate, but the low turnout calls it into question. Other changes may give members more latitude: term limits have been lifted, and the term has been increased to four years, from three.

The idea that the Majlis Al-Shura might punch more weight because of its broadened mandate does not seem to have caught on among Majlis members, however. Sultan Qaboos also sounded a note of caution in his remarks, calling on the council to keep in mind the unity of the nation and the “responsible endeavour” they are charged with.

Two steps back?
One US-based Gulf analyst cast Oman as the one state in the region that is actually moving backward in terms of reform.

Economically, this is certainly the danger. Like the rest of the region, Oman struggles to find jobs for its growing population, though it does not have the same high levels of foreign workers as the UAE. Sultan Qaboos’s “Omanisation” policy, however, has no strong direction, and the search for alternatives to oil revenues has been slow to get off the ground.

A major challenge will be World Trade Organisation (WTO) accession. As more and more sectors are opened to international competition, Gulf states will need to adopt more robust policies to keep domestic businesses healthy and competitive.

Oman’s robust banking sector could be hit by accession should foreign banks – unfettered by the poor loan portfolios that have plagued some institutions in recent years – make a rapid entry. Of more immediate concern are the country’s big trading concerns, which will find themselves competing with foreign dealers who are not constrained by family ties and other inefficient business practices.

One Western security analyst noted that while autocratic rule prevails throughout the Gulf, Oman – which has traditionally relied on a close relationship with the UK for what little military muscle it flexes – may not be as well placed to deal with much unrest as some other Gulf states. With at least some token movement toward reform already taken, Sultan Qaboos now has the chance to do much more. Which way Oman’s future lies could depend on whether he takes it.

Omani boy, the pipes are calling
The close relations Oman enjoys with the UK were in evidence just after the opening of the Majlis, when UK Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon paid a cursory visit to Muscat on a late-October tour of the Gulf. He will be followed by Prince Charles, who will stop in Oman on 5-9 November, on his way back to England from India.

The UK views Oman as its toe-hold in the Gulf. The military relationship goes back to 1798, when the first treaty was signed providing British protection for the Sultanate. In fact, the Omani military is so Anglo-centric that its musical ensemble is the Royal Omani Mounted Police Camel Pipe Band, led by John Bruce, the only Scot in a band of Omani pipers. Sultan Qaboos recently ordered a Scottish tartan for his army, according to The Times of London. The Scottish Tartans Authority is currently approving the design.

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